Amador County Gas Prices 10/21

First, here are the numbers as of 10/18/2007...

Safeway (Martell) - $3.05
Mirastar WalMart (Martell) - $3.05
Shell (Martell) - $3.25
Chevron (Martell) - $3.29
Folsom Average - $3.11

And the chart...


So, here are the trends since the last gas price posting at the end of July. Prices in both Amador County and Folsom has been in relative lockstep, with prices dipping to their lowest levels around 8/27, then spiking to the highest levels since about mid-June. Most of this is already known considering most of you fill-up gas on a weekly basis.

Here are some items of note. Safeway has gone on the record saying they would always be a penny below the competition, meaning Mirastar/Safeway. This statement has generally held true to form since Safewway opening in late 2006. An anomaly occurred on approximately 9/15 when Mirastar stayed at $2.67 and Safeway jumped to $2.89. This "inversion" continued until 9/19, at which point the two retailers have mirrored each other's price moves.

Another interesting note is that around 8/6, all four of the Martell gas stations were within 10 cents of each other, then widening to 30 cents by 9/12, then pricing within a 20-25 cent range from then to the present.

So what does this all mean? It continues to appear that both Shell and Chevron have completely abandoned the notion of pricing their gas close to Mirastar and Safeway. While Shell/Chevron price within 15-25 cents of the Folsom average which is slightly below the quoted 10% more than Amador County residents have historically paid for gas compared to Sacramento folks, Safeway/Mirastar continue to price below the Sacramento prices.

Also to note, while Mirastar prices are comparable to Safeway's, Mirastar is consistently empty while the Safeway station is jammed packed. As they say in real estate, it's location, location, location.

Update 4 - Amador County Gas Prices 7/27

Ok, I'm going to start by apologizing to my readers (0, if you exclude the blog readers coming here to read Casey's Earth Mission blog) for having not put up a new post on gas prices in Amador County for 3 months. The good news is that I have kept up with the price changes and have them saved in Excel. So, going off memory from last night's updates, here is the gas price update.

For nearly a month, the Shell and Chevron gas stations at the intersection of Ridge Road and Hwy 49 have been at a price stalemate. Both stations locked their prices at $3.19 even while the Safeway, Mirastar (Wal-Mart), and the Folsom average price have dropped. Did both stations finally tire of keeping up with the low priced gas leaders in Amador County?

Three months ago, these were the price percentage differences:

"...there is only a 16 cent difference, which equates to a 4.5% difference, which is far below the 10% difference historically quoted by locals. Across the street at the Shell station, the difference is even smaller, 4 cents or 1.2% difference."

As of 7/26, the Shell station on Ridge finally ended stalemate and lowered the price to $3.15, with Chevron at $3.19, Safeway at $3.04, Mirastar at $3.09, and the Folsom average at approximately $2.94. With those numbers in hand, the percentage difference between Chevron and Folsom is 7.9%, and between Shell and Folsom is 6.7%.

So, again, the question is: Why have the gas stations in Amador County (Chevron and Shell, in particular) stopped pricing within earshot of Safeway's prices? Is the rack price of gasoline for Amador County Chevron and Shell stations significantly higher than the Chevron and Shell gas stations in Folsom which are pricing in the $2.90s?

Update 3 - 4/29 Sutter Hill Gas Prices

So, it's been almost two months since my last update on gas prices around Sutter Hill (Amador County) compared to the Sacramento Valley (specifically Folsom). This doesn't mean that I haven't been collecting pricing information over this period of time. First, let me post the latest updated chart. You'll notice the prices have bunched up, but I'll discuss that in a moment.


As of 4/27, prices are as follows: Safeway - $3.33, Mirastar - $3.33, Shell - $3.39, Chevron - $3.51, Folsom average - $3.35.

Notice anything interesting? The lower prices that both Safeway and Mirastar (Wal-Mart) had since the beginning of the year over the Folsom average price has evaporated. For the year, Folsom's average prices have been as high as 17 cents over Safeway's prices to a few cents above or below zero nowadays. What does this mean? Well, since the other Sutter Hill gas stations (Chevron and Shell) have pegged their prices an x amount over Safeway in order to maintain their market share, this movement up of Folsom average prices has consequently closed the gap between the Sutter Hill gas stations and Folsom gas stations.

From the last gas update post on March 9th, the Chevron in Sutter Hill was priced 7.2% higher than the average pump price in Folsom. The Safeway-effect was already underway at that point. As of today, there is only a 16 cent difference, which equates to a 4.5% difference, which is far below the 10% difference historically quoted by locals. Across the street at the Shell station, the difference is even smaller, 4 cents or 1.2% difference.

The Safeway-effect has changed the gas price landscape in Amador County, with prices within 5% (high-end) and equal to prices in Folsom. The change was only made possible by the introduction of Safeway gas in the mix, sparking a kind of pricing "war" in which the beneficiaries have been the residents in the area.

In the next installment of the gas price update, I will attempt to add to the chart the daily RBOB quotes. RBOB stands for "reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending" and is specific for delivery at New York Harbor. I'm not sure how to do this properly since there are many different RBOB contracts with monthly delivery/expiration dates. It will probably be easiest to pull the price for the spot month contracts, or contracts set to deliver in the current month. While the RBOB is for gasoline on the East Coast and Gulf regions, it does provide us with a consistent baseline of gasoline price before additives are put in by specific brands (Chevron's Techron, for instance) at the truck rack.

Bad Signs Around Town

I'll start off by saying I'm notorious for correcting emails circulating at work for spelling errors and basic grammar issues. So, it should come as a surprise that I am bothered by this homemade sign for a barber. First there is the obvious issue with spelling. There is the off chance I am completely wrong and this is actually a sign for the fitness gym loaded with barbells located in the same strip mall, but I doubt it. Then there is the problem with word placement. What is with all that white space? Maybe use bigger letters and center the letters?

A mile down the road is a homemade telephone post sign for handyman services.

This last sign is for the Grand Opening of a Great Clips. There is actually nothing wrong with the sign, but I find it strange to advertise a "haircut sale". I really don't know how else to word it, but "haircut sale" just has a strange ring to it.

Update 2 - 3/09 Sutter Hill Gas Prices

An article by Liz MacLeod in the Ledger-Dispatch prompted me to provide the latest follow-up on gas prices in Amador County. For the past week, gas prices have increased on a near daily basis. As of today, 3/09, Safeway has bubbled their price for regular unleaded gasoline to an all-time Safeway high of $2.94, while the Chevron and Shell nearby are priced at $3.21 and $3.09, respectively. Without further adieu, the latest chart:


The Chevron is 23 cents higher than the average in Folsom, located in the Sacramento Valley. A 23 cent difference equates to a 7.2% higher pump price at the Chevron compared to the Folsom average. Amador County residents usually mention the pump prices have been historically 10% higher than the Valley. If the highest priced dealer in Amador is pricing only 7.2% higher rather than the mythical 10% difference, then Safeway is starting to make a dent in the prices in Amador, but there is still a ways to go.

Viability of Jackson Hills Development

This entry regarding Jackson Hills Golf Community will not discuss the environmental and economic impact to the city of Jackson or Amador County. The entry is also not to skewer the developement company behind the Jackson Hills project, New Faze Development. In fact, from what I have read, I'm rather in favor of the infill projects New Faze has taken on in the past.

Rather, let's focus on whether it makes economic sense to put in another golf course community in Amador County. As a golf course destination, the county already has Mace Meadows and Castle Oaks. Within a 30 minute drive are a plethora of other golf courses in Sacramento. There were rumors, at one point, that Jackson Rancheria was looking into building a golf course on their property, but that talk seems to have diminished. If a deep pocketed tribal casino in the county does not go forward with a golf course because the numbers don't make sense, why should another course be built.


Next, let's look at housing market. For all intensive purposes, the housing bubble has popped. I don't need to go into the figures that have been put out by all the other blogs. If you need some numbers, please click on the recommended blog links and go from there. Home sales have slowed to almost a screeching halt, mortgage lending standards are beginning to tighten, and Amador County is not immune to any of these factors, just about 6 months lagging.

So do we have a crystal ball for how home sales may fare for Jackson Hills? Possibly. What about Castle Oaks in Ione? Castle Oaks is also a golf course community in Amador County. The lots currently in development are through JTS Communities. Since sales began in late 2005 for their mid-range Premiere and high-end Masters Series homes, their sales numbers are as follows:

• Premier Series - Phase 1 - 81 lots / 26 sales / 3 spec homes = 32% sold in 16 months
• Masters Series - Phase 1 - 59 lots / 17 sales / 5 spec homes = 28.8% sold in 16 months

In fact, JTS has begun construction on 7 additional spec homes on the Masters lots. Perhaps one of the ways JTS has protected itself from the housing collapse has been its "built to order" methodology. They don't build unless a buyer places a deposit on a lot, which makes me wonder why they are putting up 7 Masters spec homes. It's clear from the numbers above that Castle Oaks isn't the booming success JTS has grown used to from their flipper friendly developments in Lincoln, West Sacramento, and Rancho Cordova.

I wonder if New Faze will go about planning the Jackson Hills development as most home builders do. That is, phases are planned and built out with the expectation of buyers. With the current housing market condition, and no signs of improvement in the near future, New Faze could be sitting on quite a bit of standing home inventory.

Not only does the Jackson Hills development have to compete with the on-going 7-10 year Castle Oaks development, there are also plans for a 1,334 home Gold Rush and a 588 home Wicklow Way project in Amador County.

New Faze should realize that the housing bubble has burst. They should also look at the difficulty JTS has had in Castle Oaks as a barometer for additional golf course communities in Amador County.

Update 1 - 2/27 Sutter Hill Gas Prices

Here is the first update to the original post from last week on Sutter Hill gas prices. Three more stations have been added to the survey (1 in Jackson, Martell, and Ione) from Amador County and two stations have been added from Folsom. I've added the Folsom stations so that we can see the consistent pump price difference between Chevron and Shell stations in Folsom versus Amador County. This move to compare same brand stations is in response to jbjbj's comment that branded stations are forced to purchase their gas from their brand's distributor rather than a wholesaler, which the Safeways and Mirastar/WalMarts can purchase from.


There still exists a 20-30 cent difference between the unbranded versus the branded stations. What is not as noticable is with the inclusion of the Folsom branded stations, comparison of like-branded stations still shows Amador County 10-15 higher than the Valley.

I am still not convinced that branded stations have to purchase from their distributor but I cannot cite a reputable source to confirm.

Update: I believe the article I read that seems to imply that all gas comes from the same place and is the same gas until additives are introduced post-refinery was from the May 08, 2003 Sacramento News & Review.

Sutter Hill Gasoline Prices

As a study of gasoline prices in a very localized market, I've decided to focus on 3 gas stations located in Sutter Hill, CA.

The reasons are simple:

• Two of the stations are across the street from each other and are along my daily commute route
  
• The third station is where I actually go for my gas and is the catalyst for price adjustments by the other two gas stations
• Sutter Hill is at least 30 miles from the nearly metropolitan area and gasoline prices are generally unaffected by the lower prices in the "big city"

Now the gas stations in the study:

• Shell (corner of Ridge Road & Hwy 49)
• Chevron (corner of Ridge Road & Hwy 49)
• Safeway (corner of Industrial Blvd & Hwy 49)

As a former resident of in the Sacramento Valley, I have always had the benefit of cheaper gas prices. On average the prices in the Valley have always been 20-30 cents lower than in Amador County. This all changed on December 1st, 2006 when the new Safeway opened, complete with a Safeway branded gas station. The gas price from regular unleaded gas was $2.55, which was equal to the price at the Valley's Costco. Soon after, both Shell and Chevron lowered their prices to within pennies of the Safeway price. To the many locals that have voiced their opinions about years price gouging by local gas station operators, this was long-awaited vindication.

Then last week, I noticed something was amiss. The Chevron was charging $2.85 while the Shell was charging $2.71, a spread of 14 cents. These two stations had always priced their gasoline in lock-step with each other, but not last week. The assumption here was that Safeway had also raised their prices and there was some delay in raising the prices at the Shell station. I was wrong. Safeway was priced at $2.51.

This week, Chevron is at $2.87, Shell at $2.85, and Safeway at $2.55.

Have the established gas stations given up the price fight against Safeway? Or is Safeway able to uncut the competition given it's deep corporate pockets? I believe it's a combination of both. Over the weekend, I noticed the average price of gasoline in the Valley was in the $2.60 range. So not only is Safeway undercutting the Sutter Hill competitors, but also undercutting the average price in Valley.

I, for one, will continue to purchase my gasoline at Safeway especially with the 3 cent per gallon discount for using my Club Card. I will also begin tracking the gas prices for these 3 stations.