Human Anal-ysis

Skunks smell like coffee

2009-01-26T23:23:00.000-08:00

Having been essentially away from blogging for over a year, I'm starting back slowly. Bare with me as I post the occasional offbeat thought as well as reporting on the fluctuations of local gasoline prices.

Anyhow, being as I live in a quiet town in a semi-rural county, I either run across the standard fare of roadkill (deer, skunks, squirrels, coyotes) or, on a more frequent basis, sniff what many describe as the stench of skunk.

What you may also notice is that often roadkill skunks don't smell like, well, skunks until days later. I'm guessing that's because the two glands that carry the chemicals that create the odor only breakdown and decompose days after death. At that point, the chemicals combine and create the offensive odor.

Maybe, I'm odd, but I no longer find the odor that skunks produce as a defense mechanism as offensive. I've taken the opposite stance. Being a big coffee drinker and having once worked various coffeehouses in Los Angeles, I think skunks smell like coffee beans or ground coffee. Seriously. I'm rather sure getting sprayed by a skunk or having a pet get spray is none to pleasant as having to experience the smell up close to far different from the experience of smelling it through your car vents or in small quantities through the air.

And in my constant effort of annoying a friend of mine by teaching her kids adult-annoying quotes or nonsense words, I've taught them that "skunks smell like COFFEE!!"

So the next time you smell skunk odor, take a minute to think. Does it really smell bad because we've been conditioned to think it smells bad or does it really smell like stepping into Starbucks?

JTS... to leave Castle Oaks

2008-07-14T12:15:00.000-07:00

Here's an interesting little tidbit from the last few weeks that has seemingly not made it into any press yet. It appears that JTS Communities, Inc., the housing developer behind the current Castle Oaks development in Ione, is in the process of selling all of its Castle Oaks development to an investor. Assets would include the lots, unsold homes, and information center on the corner of Fairway and Castle Oaks drive.

As of now, JTS is aggressively marketing the remaining finished homes with a "Foreclosure Pricing" campaign and has also place the model home for sale.

The last estimate by the sales staff of JTS was a lot inventory of at least 10 years, up from an original estimate of 5-7 years back in 2005. Obviously the housing slowdown has severely impacted the amount of homes sold and thus the timeline of lot consumption, estimated to be 700+ lots.

It is not known if the sale of assets would include Amador County land outside of Castle Oaks that is part of the JTS land portfolio.

This is not the first time a developer for Castle Oaks has left the development. JTS is the second developer after the original developer filed for bankruptcy after building 215 single-family homes. The original 1989 development agreement called for 670 single-family and 360 multi-family homes.

Quiznos Tagline: MMMM... Toasty! (+1M)

2007-10-21T21:45:00.000-07:00

While watching TV this weekend, a Quiznos Sub commercial came on. Their commercials nowadays are rather bland, I miss the days of the signing hairballs. Anyway, at the end of the current spots, the voice over always says the Quiznos tagline: MMMMM... Toasty! So what's the problem here? Umm, there are only 4 M's on their logo. I mean seriously, if every commercial says MMMMM, then print MMMMM, not MMMM. Are they paying by the letter here? Toddlers watching Baby Einstein could probably figure there's a missing M.

For those not in the know, the Martin Agency created SpongMonkeys for Quiznos around 2003. The SpongMonkeys were scary looking, played guitar, and sang badly. It was great!

Amador County Gas Prices 10/21

2007-10-21T21:18:00.000-07:00

First, here are the numbers as of 10/18/2007...

Safeway (Martell) - $3.05
Mirastar WalMart (Martell) - $3.05
Shell (Martell) - $3.25
Chevron (Martell) - $3.29
Folsom Average - $3.11

And the chart...

So, here are the trends since the last gas price posting at the end of July. Prices in both Amador County and Folsom has been in relative lockstep, with prices dipping to their lowest levels around 8/27, then spiking to the highest levels since about mid-June. Most of this is already known considering most of you fill-up gas on a weekly basis.

Here are some items of note. Safeway has gone on the record saying they would always be a penny below the competition, meaning Mirastar/Safeway. This statement has generally held true to form since Safewway opening in late 2006. An anomaly occurred on approximately 9/15 when Mirastar stayed at $2.67 and Safeway jumped to $2.89. This "inversion" continued until 9/19, at which point the two retailers have mirrored each other's price moves.

Another interesting note is that around 8/6, all four of the Martell gas stations were within 10 cents of each other, then widening to 30 cents by 9/12, then pricing within a 20-25 cent range from then to the present.

So what does this all mean? It continues to appear that both Shell and Chevron have completely abandoned the notion of pricing their gas close to Mirastar and Safeway. While Shell/Chevron price within 15-25 cents of the Folsom average which is slightly below the quoted 10% more than Amador County residents have historically paid for gas compared to Sacramento folks, Safeway/Mirastar continue to price below the Sacramento prices.

Also to note, while Mirastar prices are comparable to Safeway's, Mirastar is consistently empty while the Safeway station is jammed packed. As they say in real estate, it's location, location, location.

Update 4 - Amador County Gas Prices 7/27

2007-07-27T10:19:00.000-07:00

Ok, I'm going to start by apologizing to my readers (0, if you exclude the blog readers coming here to read Casey's Earth Mission blog) for having not put up a new post on gas prices in Amador County for 3 months. The good news is that I have kept up with the price changes and have them saved in Excel. So, going off memory from last night's updates, here is the gas price update.

For nearly a month, the Shell and Chevron gas stations at the intersection of Ridge Road and Hwy 49 have been at a price stalemate. Both stations locked their prices at $3.19 even while the Safeway, Mirastar (Wal-Mart), and the Folsom average price have dropped. Did both stations finally tire of keeping up with the low priced gas leaders in Amador County?

Three months ago, these were the price percentage differences:

"...there is only a 16 cent difference, which equates to a 4.5% difference, which is far below the 10% difference historically quoted by locals. Across the street at the Shell station, the difference is even smaller, 4 cents or 1.2% difference."

As of 7/26, the Shell station on Ridge finally ended stalemate and lowered the price to $3.15, with Chevron at $3.19, Safeway at $3.04, Mirastar at $3.09, and the Folsom average at approximately $2.94. With those numbers in hand, the percentage difference between Chevron and Folsom is 7.9%, and between Shell and Folsom is 6.7%.

So, again, the question is: Why have the gas stations in Amador County (Chevron and Shell, in particular) stopped pricing within earshot of Safeway's prices? Is the rack price of gasoline for Amador County Chevron and Shell stations significantly higher than the Chevron and Shell gas stations in Folsom which are pricing in the $2.90s?

Casey Serin has fled to Australia?

2007-06-11T12:00:00.000-07:00

It appears to Casey Serin of IamFacingForeclosure fame has up and left his wife and fled to Australia. Details are at Exurbannation.

Update 3 - 4/29 Sutter Hill Gas Prices

2007-04-29T22:50:00.000-07:00

So, it's been almost two months since my last update on gas prices around Sutter Hill (Amador County) compared to the Sacramento Valley (specifically Folsom). This doesn't mean that I haven't been collecting pricing information over this period of time. First, let me post the latest updated chart. You'll notice the prices have bunched up, but I'll discuss that in a moment.

As of 4/27, prices are as follows: Safeway - $3.33, Mirastar - $3.33, Shell - $3.39, Chevron - $3.51, Folsom average - $3.35.

Notice anything interesting? The lower prices that both Safeway and Mirastar (Wal-Mart) had since the beginning of the year over the Folsom average price has evaporated. For the year, Folsom's average prices have been as high as 17 cents over Safeway's prices to a few cents above or below zero nowadays. What does this mean? Well, since the other Sutter Hill gas stations (Chevron and Shell) have pegged their prices an x amount over Safeway in order to maintain their market share, this movement up of Folsom average prices has consequently closed the gap between the Sutter Hill gas stations and Folsom gas stations.

From the last gas update post on March 9th, the Chevron in Sutter Hill was priced 7.2% higher than the average pump price in Folsom. The Safeway-effect was already underway at that point. As of today, there is only a 16 cent difference, which equates to a 4.5% difference, which is far below the 10% difference historically quoted by locals. Across the street at the Shell station, the difference is even smaller, 4 cents or 1.2% difference.

The Safeway-effect has changed the gas price landscape in Amador County, with prices within 5% (high-end) and equal to prices in Folsom. The change was only made possible by the introduction of Safeway gas in the mix, sparking a kind of pricing "war" in which the beneficiaries have been the residents in the area.

In the next installment of the gas price update, I will attempt to add to the chart the daily RBOB quotes. RBOB stands for "reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending" and is specific for delivery at New York Harbor. I'm not sure how to do this properly since there are many different RBOB contracts with monthly delivery/expiration dates. It will probably be easiest to pull the price for the spot month contracts, or contracts set to deliver in the current month. While the RBOB is for gasoline on the East Coast and Gulf regions, it does provide us with a consistent baseline of gasoline price before additives are put in by specific brands (Chevron's Techron, for instance) at the truck rack.

Temp Posting of Casey's Earth Mission Blog

2007-04-22T14:17:00.000-07:00

(Captured from Exalead on 2/3/07) *** Props to Trent ***

sercasey’s earth mission log

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About

C a s e y K o n s t a n t i n S e r i n

… also known as “sercasey” on the web.

Casey is a Servant, Husband, Friend, Blogger and Real Estate Investor from Sacramento area, California.

On Earth since 1982. Originally from Tashkent, Uzbekistan. In the USA since 1994. Graduated from Bella Vista High School in 2000. Married to Galina since 2004.

A mostly outgoing, tough-minded, deep-thinking, achievement-driven Innovator Rationalist (ENTP) and a thrill-seeking, risk-taking, easy-going, competitive, Promoter Artisan (ESTP) personality.

The primary purpose of this web log is to document daily activity and raw thoughts.

Feel free to participate through your comments.

To contact Casey visit serin.us.

Sunday July 17, 2006

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Lot has happened since the last entry. I took a break for about a week from blogging and then decided to continue writing a short recap of each day on my pda saving it in the drafts. I kept at it for the entire time not skipping a day up until today. Then in my attempt to backup all the messages I accidentally deleted them! I felt really bad and became very irritated and was snapping at Galina for no good reason.

I spent several hours trying to figure out what to do about blogging and stuff. I looked at the old Blogger blog but decided to stick with this one because it already has a lot of posts and comments. I’m still very upset that the last several months have been erased. I hope to review it from memory in the next couple of days. I also want to get into a habit of daily writing like I have been on the PDA for the last couple of months. Its too bad Wordpress doesn’t support post-by-email like Blogger. It would have been nice to just post straight from PDA before going to bed. They will probably have a feature for it pretty soon. Going on my laptop every night will be a good habit to develop anyway because I could also upload pictures and update Money along with blogging. So now its 3:25AM Monday and I need to get going. But first a quick recap of Sunday.

We drove from Hollywood to San Diego and checked into a hotel. In Hollywood we attended David Lindahl’s seminar on apartments for 4 days. This week we’re going to go to Kris Kirshner’s seminar on buying and selling houses efficiently.Its going to be a 5 day seminar. We just came back form dinner at Red Lobster. I was reading The One Minute Millionaire book and getting some good ideas too. In the car to San Diego we talked about our relationship and business.

I feel so irritated by the fact that I’m up so late and and that all those records were deleted from the PDA. I must learn from this to backup my posts. I also don’t like using the computer again to write these posts. Using the PDA seemed easier and the posts ended up being very short and concise. I will give it some more thought. Lord please help me figure out a way to do this journal.

Should I go on? May 8, 2006

Posted by sercasey in uncategorized. 1 comment so far

I have not skipped a day in the journal for this entire year but about a week ago I stopped caring about it. I stopped posting and let several days go by. With every day that passes the discipline and motivation is getting weaker. I want to keep doing this but i’m not sure why. What benefit is there?

Comments»

1. caleb dunlap - June 14, 2006

of course u should. please? ~Caleb

Tuesday Muncy Bid, Dallas and Organize April 26, 2006

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We decided to finish the rehab on Muncy. So we meet with Tom and his wife Hidi at the property this morning to have him re-bid the rehab work. We liked Tom the best last time we did the bidding. This time Galina is handling the process and she made a big detailed list for him to go over and fill-in the amounts. This way we’re getting a more precise bid which should result in fewer surprises down the road.

I’m happy Galina is taking charge of this. I think she will be really good at it. She has great attention to detail and makes a good manager. She can use a little work on being more extroverted and outgoing but that’s really her only challenge beside the lack of experience/knowledge. The knowledge we can help acquire by going to a rehabbing bootcamp one of these days.

Afterward we go home. Galina takes a nap and I work on trying to do the Angleridge property in Dallas. Mark found me a really good hard-money lender that may be able to close by next week. However, the lender wants to do their own appraisal and inspection which I have to pay for upfront. Also they want a contractor’s bid to be submitted to the appraiser for them to calculate their numbers and After Repair Value. The good news is that the lender is quick and they can do upto 70% ARV. They do charge 5 points with 14% interest and 3 month prepay. That’s what makes it “hard” money I guess.

I gave them the lender the info they needed to get started and I will be hearing from the appraiser and inspector tomorrow. I need to get a rehab bid as soon as possible tomorrow morning.

I don’t really like all the work that’s going into this deal, specially since the margin is not as big as I thought. However, I want to make a good impression on the wholesaler and lender so that I can use them again. By doing this deal and coming through I will build a good reputation and be able to do more deals better and faster. This gives me a way into the market in Dallas.

I join Galina for a quick nap. We wake up and get the fax back from Tom and Hidi. Galina calls them back to double check some of the numbers. The bid is in line with our budget so Galina is going to meet with them tomorrow sign some kind of paperwork and get them started.

The rest of the day, I continue to organize the office, taking a trip to Fry’s to pickup some stuff: 1) a CD case for organizing all the training audio/computer/video CDs and DVDs, 2) a copy of Microsoft Money 2006 to finally start to organize the finances and 3) phone jack splitter so I can connect both the fax and a regular phone into the Vonage adapter and use one line for both.

Tuesday Phone Calls and Errands April 25, 2006

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Wheatgrass juice!A day of trying to track down some financing for the deal that came up in Dallas Texas from a wholesaler. That takes many different phone calls to the loan people - mortgage brokers and hard money lenders.

Pickup mailI also run some errands - pickup mail where I get my mini-SD memory cards so I can now turn my PDA/phone into an MP3 player, take care of the Guadalajara well paperwork, send Myles some deposit money for the Texas deal, stop by the old apartment to pickup the last of the stuff, and stop by and pay Brian for his hauling job. I also talk to some different people today - friends David Ga. and Brad catching up on stuff, Sherry about land development syndication in Texas, RV sellers trying to get a descent cheap one to drive around Texas, and other investors.

One phone call in particular was not so pleasant. I talk to Tennis who is an investor/loan officer I met through Whitney courses. I call him to catchup and he complains that I don’t use him for loans. He is upset that he has been giving me free information and referrals and I’m not returning the favor. I guess that info came with strings attached, heh? He got pretty upset and hung up on me. I couldn’t believe it. So unreasonable. Now for sure I’m not going to use him. I got kind of worked up by it at first and wanted to call him and tell him how I felt but then decided to let it slide and move on.

Monday A Little Organizing April 24, 2006

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Organizing the officeA day of doing a little bit of organizing around the new place. After I finally getup I do some work on getting the office and electronic systems in shape. A lazy unmotivated day for me. I need to give myself a kick-in-tha-butt!

Sunday David Lindahl Seminar April 23, 2006

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David Lindahl's Seminar on Apartment House InvestingWake up early and go to San Francisco to attend David Lindahl’s bonus worshop on apartment investing. It came free with the study-at-home course I bought of his back at the Real Estate Annex in San Francisco. The thing ended up being mostly education and some selling of his 3-day bootcamp. Can’t get away from having stuff sold to you at every one of these things. That’s natural. I don’t mind, as long as they don’t go over board and still provide quality education. I did sign up for the 3-day course. I’m a sucker for some of these things. I have been signup up and buying lots of education lately. Its all good though because I will learn the stuff and actually apply it and be successful at it.

During the seminar one of the Learning Annex guys offered me a “good deal” on a loft in SF, South of Market area. I talked to him and his broker friend afterwards but realized that its not much of a deal for me. I can’t easily resell it at their asking price and I will not be able to cashflow it at all. Yes I can try to offer a lower price and try to haggle a bit but I decided not to bother right now. I need to stay focused. It was a good experience to analyze the deal and meet the “slick” broker nevertheless. His marketing materials were really nice. He is a young guy too. Its good to see young people in the real estate business.

We go home afterwards and visit some of Galina’s family and call it a day.

Saturday Moving Day April 22, 2006

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Me and the moversWe wake up and Max and Lamine, the movers, call me in the morning while I’m still sleeping. They want to know when to come. There must have been some miscommunication with Brian because I thought Brian was coming too. I found later that Brian doesnt do moving, just hauling. So he referred me to Max. That’s OK, I still have them come ‘cuz I don’t have any other help. That’s what happens when I don’t plan things out in advance.

The movers are supposed to come at 1pm. Galina and I need to get our butts out of bed and pack everything up before then.

Its 8am or so. Galina is a hard worker so she jumps out of bed right away and starts packing. I’m being lazy and I lay in bed for a bit longer and she gets upset at me. She has every right to. I’ve been lazy and passive for this entire move while she has been working hard. So I kick myself in the butt (yes its possible) and get going.

We pack and pack. The movers come late because they are confused about directions. That’s good because we have a little extra time. By the time they get here we’re mostly done with packing. They bring a moving truck that looks just like the one you rent from U-Haul. A 17 foot one I think.

The movers are from some French-speaking African country. Max has been in America only 1 year and Lamine a little longer. They both speak adequate English. We tell them we’re immigrants too and that stirs some conversation and a little bit of a connection. They are nice guys. I wish they were more careful with our stuff though. They are not as professional as we wanted. But hey, it was last minute and we didn’t have time to shop around, so that’s what we get.

The move goes pretty good and we pack the truck up tight. Pretty much everything fit. I also borrowed the pickup truck from my dad to carry extra stuff.

The movers’ truck has a flat tire so we go and fill up some air on our time while we’re paying them hourly. Not a good thing. I wonder if they do this kind of thing on purpose to get more money. Probably not. I give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they didn’t know about it. Still, that’s something a professional mover should notice before going on the job. You would think.

OK OK. I will not complain so much. They are nice guys. And they say they don’t charge very much, just $75/hour flat for 2 people. Nothing extra for truck or driving time/miles.

The only other company we shopped was “Starving Students”. Starving Students wanted a little more per hour and charge double while driving. But maybe they are a little more professional and careful. Will have to shop around more next time.

When we get to Yulia’s place in West Sac we get some extra help. Galina’s dad comes out to help and Yulia does too. The move goes quicker. The monster desk was a challenge back in the apartments and is even bigger hassle here. It takes 4 of us this time to get it up the narrow stairs and into the bedroom.

We pay the movers for 5 hours of work and let them go. This is the first time we use hired help. Even though we would have preferred better quality movers I still enjoyed having them. It was convenient not having to rent the truck. Also I didn’t want to bother friends and family last minute. We have been moving a lot lately too - on overage once every six months for the past three years! I feel like friends and family may do it out of obligation with resentment. I sure don’t always enjoy helping people move. I have thought of writing an article about it.

I swing by the Peychev’s get together where my dad is. I give him back the truck and go to Suprun’s place where we have some food. Then back to Yulia’s. I’ll start calling this “home” from now on. Galina goes to sleep right away. She is smart because tomorrow we need to get up at 4am to get to San Francisco by 8am and go to the Apartment seminar. Its 12:45am and I need to get my butt into bed now. As soon as I finish this post.

Friday Cable Guy and Not Packing April 21, 2006

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PICT2959We spend the first part of the day at Yulia’s place (our new place) waiting for cable guy to show up. I work on ripping the NIV Bible on CD onto my computer, finally got a chance to start on it. Its a big task and I think I will write an article on how to do that in the future. Galina plays with Yulia’s cat with a laser pointer. The cat takes a dump and smells up the whole place. Not fun.

The cable guy comes and connection the internet. I take care of business via phone and laptop. Galina takes a nap. While she’s napping I talk to Dorthy and propose the idea of her helping me work the leads. I also sign for the Cracking the Millioner Code 3-day seminar next weekend as Dorthy’s guest, ‘cuz its free. I talk with Galina later and she thinks both of these things are not a good idea. She makes some valid points, though I resist her opinion at first.

Also, one of the leads was a wholesaler (via a realtor) who has a great deal in Dallas area, Texas. I talk to him and want to jumps on this deal but he already has a buyer. On monday I will find out if the buyer backed out. I called around to see where I can get some hard money or private money. Uncles don’t have that kind of money and my hard money connection is non existant at this point. I really need to get some cash lined up to take advantage of such deals.

PICT2963Later at night we go to my parents’ place and have some food and tea and go to the apartment kind of late. Galina is upset at me because I spent the whole day and we didn’t pack for tomorrow. Tomorrow was supposed to be the moving day. I agree with her. I have been very lazy / passive about the whole moving thing. I really don’t like moving. So its now a mess because we don’t have any movers or friends lined up to help us move tomorrow.

I make a quick call to Brian the guy who did the hauling job for me on Burdett property. I asked him if he can come out and help us move tomorrow morning. He said he’ll get back to me. We go to bed. I really need some of this sleep since I only got like 2-3 hours last night.

Thursday Modesto and Bruce Norris April 20, 2006

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Muncy property with new doorsWe go to Modesto to look at the stuff that Joel did on the Muncy property. Its funny because the whole time I thought he was the other contractor (Tom). So when he walked in I couldn’t figure out what was going on for a second. Its just he is more expensive then the other guy I wanted to use.

The job was done pretty much in line with what I wanted, so its good anyway. This was supposed to be just a quick half-rehab and then decide on what to do next. Either continue to the full rehab and retail or just try to sell it as is. In order to improve the initial curb appeal I had him replace the garage and front doors, fix the living room ceiling, clean up the trash and try to clean up the pool/spa water. The pool is better but is still cloudy. The spa bottom is dirty. He says its stained by the leaves that were there. I pay him and he goes on his way. We think about it for a bit.

I feel overwhelmed by all this work and having to figure out how much money and effort we will need to sink into this thing. California market is reversing and I need to sell this thing quickly. Galina and I get into a little bit of a conflict on the way back because I’m kind of taking some of my frustration on her. That’s not fair to her though. So I need to stop. Part of me also wants her to take this job on so I don’t have to deal with it. She’s not ready for that yet. But she is willing to do this kind of stuff in the future so that makes me feel good.

We also get a tip from Joel about some other investor who has property he may want to sell as is. After picking up some food at Olive Garden we swing by the property. I talk to the investor on the phone and get the numbers. Its 6 units on one lot - 3 houses and one triplex. After looking at the rough numbers and the neighborhood I decide not to touch it.

We drive back through some traffic and come home. I am feeling sleepy and want to take a nap but Galina wants to go to Home Depot to look at some materials and prices. I don’t want to at first but then agree to go. Once there it was good. I look at some of the stuff that we talked about when getting contractor’s bids. Knowing the prices and the possibilities is a good thing. It opened up my mind a little as to what I can do when remodeling. A lot of stuff is easier then I though. For example instead of tiling the shower walls I can buy a whole shower box and just drop it in. Same with other things like ready-made cabinets, counters, etc. No reason to go custom and pay the big bucks. So it was educational. Bruce Norris on the California Crash

After that I take a nap and go to Norcal REIA to see Bruce Norris. Since I’m doing the California Investor Series with Bruce the stuff he was talking about was review to me. Still I took some good notes and thought about some things I need to start doing to get ready for the “California Crash” that’s going to happen. If I get my act together this will be one of the best times to pickup good deals for pennies on the dollar. I need to get talking to REO agents and get my hard money lined up. That’s basically the strategy.

The networking was good tonight. Got to talk to Stephany from the Norris group, Zack, RC and Dorthy. I met some other people too. I need to implement some kind of a follow up system.

Wednesday Starting the Move April 19, 2006

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Keeping the cargo tightToday we finally start our move. But that’s not until night time. During the day I meet with Levent for lunch to catchup on our lives and Dustin also swings by. We have some good food at Mongolian BBQ. Its good to see friends. I borrow my dad’s truck and go back to the apartment where Galina already started packing. I help her pack and we move our entire office that night to Yulia’s. We got home around 1am. I’m reminded how I hate moving because of all the manual labor involved. It seems like wasted effort to me. There is got to be a better way. Since we move so often we should be getting more efficient at it by now. We’re actually considering hiring movers this weekend instead of obligating friends and family to help us again.

Tuesday Boxes But Not Packing April 18, 2006

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A day of getting boxes from Walmart, doing some work, but not starting the packing yet…

For once in a few days we get up early, somewhat, at 7am or so. We go over to Walmart because they give out their used boxes to people who are willing to get up at the crack of dawn and go and pick them up. So we get the boxes but we don’t do any moving today. Instead we work on some business and Galina does lots of good work today. I feel good about that. She is really starting to get into it. We take a nap around 3 and end up sleeping longer then planned. I managed to cleanup the kitchen. The rest of the place is still a mess. We need to get packing because its already Tuesday and we need to be moving this Saturday. We’re also trying to decide between hiring movers or asking friends to help. The longer we wait the less time to ask people and actually get somebody. On Sunday there is David Lindahls apartment boot camp in San Francisco. So it would be nice to be all moved by then. So all this talk about moving and packing, now I’m getting really determined to get up tomorrow and work the whole day on that.

Monday a Waste Mostly April 17, 2006

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A day of waking up very late and not doing very much, except for meeting with dad, that’s good…

This has to be one of the laziest unproductive Mondays in a long time. By the time we got out of bed it was around 3pm. I’m have been feeling kind of unmotivated the whole day. Not sure where to start working. The apartment is a mess. Lots of loose ends with the business. Moving this weekend. Gotta plan the next move with the business. Etc.

The thing that kind of saved the day is that I met with my dad today at Fresh choice for dinner and we talked about marriage, relationships, God, etc. It was a good time and dad encouragement me in my struggles in marriage. I feel blessed being able to have a good relationships with dad that we can meet and talk honestly.

The only other thing is that G and I have been doing good today and she got some work done while I was out. Also I got to say hi to Rita and Steve at home. I realize I want to hang out more with my family and siblings and develop a relationships. I need to find a way to do that. I need to find a way to balance.

Sunday Easter in West Sac April 16, 2006

Posted by sercasey in daily journal. 1 comment so far

A day of going to church in West Sacramento, and hanging out with Supruns, stopping by Mistuiks and Peter’s…

A pretty good Easter service at the Russian church in West Sacramento, celebrating Jesus Christ’s resurrection. Then lunch at Suprun’s, then we swing by Mistuiks, then I go to Peter Peychev’s house and talk to him about real estate.

Saturday Analysing Deals April 15, 2006

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Shopping in the Morning. Nothing spectacular. It nice to finally go though. We haven’t gone shopping in a while and our fridge has been empty for a couple of days — ever since we came back from Hawaii. Everybody is shopping at the same time as we are. Of course, it is Saturday morning and it is the day before Easter. I get some good organic food for juicing and eating for a couple of weeks and Galina gets stuff to make food for tomorrows family thing.

Look at RC’s deal on Westeria. Its a pretty good house in good part of Orangevale. I take a few pictures and notice the repairs needed. Then I go to parents house to lookup the comps. The original reason i go there is for Steve to fix my ignition problem. So I look at the comps but they are coming in about 20K lower then I was told. I call RC and tell him about it. I pass on the deal.

Look at open house. On the way back from Westeria I look at some open house. I notice it because of the multiple signs on the street advertising it. I have seen the signs before. They are unique — made out of plastic pipes. The signs also say “free list of homes for sale in the area”. I like the marketing so I go and talk to the agent about it. The agent there is not the listing agent. I guess that’s usually the case with open houses. Maybe not. The agent there is a buyer’s agent looking to find a buyer to work with that might comes through the door without an agent. I talk to him for a bit and at the quality of the remodeling job. He has some kind of House Buyer’s Club thing that’s supposed to be better/fresher info for the public then realtor.com. However, he wants me to signup for it and have him be my buyer’s agent for 120 days. I decline.

I see an agent advertising on a fence of a house on the way back. I’ve seen it before. Its an interesting place to advertise. First I would think its violating some kind of city code. And if its not, then its great advertising because its located on a busy street and its a big sign. I wonder if the owner of the house is the agent himself or if he allows people to advertise on his fence and how much. It would be nice to put up a big “We Buy Houses” sign there. I go and investigate and realize its not a house but a small baseball field. There are more signs on the inside of the fence for the same agent. I call the agent and leave a message. Interesting.

Steve fixes my car and changes the oil. I’m happy to have a brother who is a car mechanic. He has been improving in this area. It used to be that I was hesitant to have him fix stuff because a couple of times he didn’t do a great job. However, in the last couple of years I feel good about his ability. Of course I pay him but he gives me a good deal and I can trust him.

I look at the house for sale next door to parents house. Meet Mike and Larry - contractor/wanna be investor and his relative Realtor. We get to talking and realize that Mike wants to buy a house around the corner but doesn’t have the credit. He thinks that maybe I can partner up with him and buy the house and sell it to him on a lease option. I go and look at the house with them and we consider the deal. I want to help with a reasonable profit of course. We negotiate the deal some but I start to get the feeling that this deal doesn’t seem right. I don’t want to get stuck with this house and I already told myself I am not doing deals in California unless its a really really good deal and no holding property. Here I am considering buying and holding something. I tell them that I’ll think about the deal and run some number first before I can go on. I also give Mike the idea to ask the owner to carry 20% financing so he can get in on a 80% loan. He already told me that he qualified for 80% with his bruised credit. We leave off on that.

I go back to the house and talk to Steve about doing a new salvage car. The Taurus is getting up in miles, almost 100,000 and I should sell it before it starts to really break down on me. Steve thinks I can only get like 2 grand for it. I don’t really want to deal with selling it. I think of going to CarMax and seeing how much money they would offer me. Then maybe I can have Steve find me a car on the auction and fix it for me so that its cheap yet quality.

I go home, Galina made some nice looking jello deserts for the party tomorrow. We go to sleep late.

Tuesday, February 28th, 2006 February 28, 2006

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I woke up around 6:15am and got up to turn off the alarm and felt pretty very tired/sleep still since we only got 4 hours last night. I took my phone with me back to bed and set the alarm for 7:15 so I can catch another hour of sleep. I told G to turn off her alarm because she has a habit of snoozing it for a very long time, don’t get any sleep that way. Well I slept through my alarm at 7 and kept sleeping for a bit until I got a phone call from Diana the tenant buyer in Burdett property. She asked about some minor repairs that still needed to be fixed and gave me her fax number to fax the contracts over for her records. I didn’t get to do that today, I need to get back to her tomorrow on that and ask Peter to finish the fixes. I didn’t fax it because I have been trying to get the fax machine setup with Vonage all day. Back to the morning. I hangup with Diana and try to do figure out what i’m going to do. I hate waking up late because the whole morning is off. I do some juicing and try to do some work. Galina is upset because I didn’t wake her up after I got up and since I asked her to turn off her alarm she kept sleeping. We enjoy our juice on the couch for a bit. I take a shower reciting the first set of topical verses and do my cold water treatment. I have not missed it since I started doing these. Everytime I’m taking a shower since I have been turning on the cold water at the end for 30 seconds or so and back to warm, and sometimes just end with cold. Its always hard to do and takes some willpower. It gets a little bit easier but not by much. However, I always feel refreshed. Its overwhelming because I have lots of stuff that’s coming together all at once and there is stuff that I need to do to keep stuff going. I talk to Bill about Muncy loan and tell him to go for stated/stated since I’m having problems doing a VOD of my wells fargo account. Its a long process and I need to close. RC calls me to checkup on Muncy and I tell him that everything is smooth except for the VOD and we should be closing soon. Highland, UT property is coming along smoothly too according to Mark and should be closing by friday or monday too. I’m overwhelmed because I’m not sure what I will be doing with Sonora property in Albuquerque and Highland UT. My plan was to make a trip out there and to lease option them out real quick. However, I’m not sure if I should fly or drive and I’m not sure how much time it will take. It may take longer then a week. Or maybe I should use a property management company to take care of my lease optioning. Also if i’m going to do it myself I need to get the website going and put an ad in the local paper so that it will run this weekend. That way I can lease option it out right away. So much to do and so many decisions to make. Also i’m not sure if I should take Galina with me or not. Its going to be expensive to fly together, but driving it should not add much additional cost. The other factor is that I wanted to get away for a bit and enjoy some alone time. One side of me really wants that. Especially since my resolve from a week ago about taking some time apart. The other side of me wants to work together and work toward unity. Lately she has been working pretty good and starting to want to help out with the business. I can definitely use her and it would be great to have a husband-wife team. I’m torn. Lord please help me and guide me. Also there is the 2nd St foreclosure/short sale thing I have to do. Its been 5 days since Dora sent me the stuff. I just need to package it up and send it to the bank. I feel overwhelmed with that. Also I’m feeling lots of pressure because my cell phone plan ran out yesterday and I’m using toll minutes now. Every phone call I hear the seconds ticking and bill increasing. I’m still thinking about switching to Verizon and getting a slightly bigger plan plus their wireless broadband service. Though I don’t have to switch to have the broadband service, just pay a little bit extra. I do want to get a phone/pda combo and the one I saw in the verizon store by Wells Fargo on Pleasant Grove was pretty good. The guy said he will give me a good deal on it. Its an older model and he only has one in stock. The stuff I don’t like about it is that it doesn’t have a comact flash card expansion so that I cannot get one of these 8GB flash drives. [I just took a break from writing this post and wrote up a description for a personal blog/journal that I want to launch. I plan to launch it tomorrow - March 1st - its a good date to launch it. I lost my train of though… lets get back]. So I am also trying out Vonage. I picked up the adapter at BestBuy and signed up for service. I also bought a plain vanilla cardless phone. I signed up for Vonage service and plugged in the adapter into the wireless router which is plugged in to my cable modem with Comcast. I also plugged in the cordless phone to charge since the manual said it needs like 15 hours to charge. That’s as far as I got. Oh and I ordered an additional fax line for 9.95 (on top of the 24.95 for the main service). The numbers they assigned me are OK. I want a better vanity number that spells something or one with repeated digits or lots of zeros for better recognition and easier remembering. I was going to ask my dad to order a second line and have me choose the number then transfer the number to Vonage. I may still do that. [I just came up with the name for my daily journal/blog “Daily Brain Backup” which is basically me writing down what happened during the day and any thoughts that go along with it for backing up or achiving purposes. I may want to search the archive later and go back and see what happened on a particular day. I like this progress.] Back to the day. The good news is that I called Rio Grande title in Albuquerque and they said that Sonora property closed and funds were dispersed today. So I talked to Tina and gave her my wiring info so that as soon as they get the money they will wire it over. Praise God for that deal. Galina took down the tree and started cleaning up our living room of Christmass decorations. That’s nice, since today is the last day of winter. Good day to do that. Right now she is just watching a little TV and I was watching too. I felt though that I’m wasting time and I have lots of stuff I gotta do. So I wrote this very long post. Tomorrow i’m converting this to my blog. I’m still thinking about what I’m going to edit and what I’m not going to edit. Why should I do this? Is this just an impulsive thing? I don’t know. There is stuff in wrote in the last 2 months that may be not so good to let out in the public. I’m going to have to use a little bit of caution. But I am not going to convert everything all at once probably. Just a couple of posts a day. Or maybe all of them. I’m not sure yet. I like this conversational type of writing. Its kind of messy and hard to follow but that’s how we talk. So on the blog I probably will use Blogger and email the posts that way I’ll have a copy of them also in my sent box. I’m also thinking that I should not discuss intimate details of G and I relationship, just on the surface. Enough to get me an idea of what was going on if i was to read it later. Maybe use some kind of code word. We’ll see. Another thing is that I should be careful not to reveal too much stuff about other people because they may get offended. Maybe not even use their last names. Hmmm… its a dilema. If I start censoring too much I will get away from my purpose which is a brain dump, just how it is. But I still really want it to be public. I don’t know exactly why. Part of my just wants to be open and transparent with no regard for other people’s feelings about it. That’s probably wrong if taken too far. I know that G will not like it big time. She wants to stay private. I don’t blame her. Its a good thing sometimes. But I don’t feel any need to disclose. I also want to use Flickr to snap pictures throughout the day. I have the camera phone for something. I can use Flickr free account for this purpose and have it post directly to my blog or just have a side bar in the blog. I will use SmugMug for actual photo galleries and I will pay for that service, its worth it. I will convert those over some day. Not sure when. I also today worked on AbleBuyer logo. I had an interesting idea to go with the “Creative Real Estate Solutions” tag line and have a jig-saw puzzle inside of a house as the logo. I started working on it in a photoshop file. We’ll see what happens from it. Its 1:15am and Its time to go sleep. I will wakeup tomorrow at 6am and will not complain about it. I will prioritize my day in the morning and have a super-productive action-filled day. Not just any action but action that makes a difference. Lord be with me and help me follow You.

Sunday January 1, 2006

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Sleep in from around 6pm to 2pm. Upset at Galina from last night, and refusing to talk about it. I need some space.

Meet up with David Ga. at our favorite Denny’s to return his cell that he left at the party. We talk for a couple of hours about last night, 2005 performance, 2006 goals, life, faith, struggles, etc. We encourage each other and pray. Come back to apt. Talk w G about last night, and make peace.

I make and drink 2 cups of carrot juice to get the juicing goal started.

We go to my parents because G wants to talk to Margarita and Kristina. We snack and hang out with Steve and Kristina for a bit then all of us go pick up Jessy.

We go bowling at Crestview and get to interact with Jessy for more than just a few minutes. Come back to the house and hang some more.

Galina and I debate whether we should take a random trip out of town for her b day. She wants to do something special but I don’t feel like it. We end up taking Chris’ Jeep and going to South Lake Tahoe. No packing. No warm clothes. No problem.

Its about 11pm. Rain/wet snow. Chain control. We got 4×4. We keep going. We get into town.

Shop for hotel via Google SMS. Lakeside Inn wins. Our favorite cheap breakfast place / drink place from before. After some minor inconvenience with getting wrong bed count we get in to a room with a king. The inside is surprisingly nice - cabin style. We go to sleep around 2-3am.

Sac Bee's inclusion of Amador County housing numbers

2007-04-17T00:43:00.000-07:00

For the longest time, the Sacramento Bee has only provided housing information (sales, prices, etc.) for the four county region of Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo. Granted, the Sac Bee's numbers usually come from one of two sources, San Diego-based DataQuick or Folsom-based The Gregory Group.

Recently, I've begun seeing DataQuick's numbers include additional counties, including Amador:

"March escrow closings for all homes in the region totaled 3,223, beating January and February, but still a "tepid" opening to the spring sales season, said Andrew LePage, an analyst with La Jolla-based DataQuick. The numbers were down from 4,571 recorded the same month last year in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties.
March closings represent sales started in December, January and February before extensive publicity about imploding subprime lending firms and tougher new lending rules."

I have to play a little devil's advocate here, but are the year-over-year comparisons looking at this year's 8 county numbers versus last year's 8 county numbers, or just last year's 4 county numbers? Next, if the YOY comparisons are correct, does the inclusion of the additional counties improve the numbers in favor of market conditions deteriorating or improving?

As a frame of reference, I first started noticing the 8 county figures in a Sac Bee article noting the spike in foreclosures at the start of the year (2007).

Immaculate Conception - The New EPT Commercial

2007-04-17T00:16:00.000-07:00

It's been a while since my last post. The gaps between posts occurs when I've been busy at work, busy at home, and generally lazy in between.

Anyhow, the commercial spawning this latest post started appearing on my television about 3 weeks ago. It's an EPT commercial. EPT is one of those at-home pregnancy tests. Now, I haven't seen many at-home pregnancy test commercials lately on the tube, or maybe I've unconciously blocked them out when they do appear.

But the latest EPT commercial caught my eye. Why? The complete absence of a male in the spot. Not a one. The entire spot focuses on a businesswoman. She riding a commuter train home, arrives home in her semi-post-modern home in "Spring Valley", takes her pregnancy test, sees the result, and relaxes on her sofa.

It's interesting that Pfizer and the ad agency have embraced the reality of the new family, the reality of the unmarried single mother. This new reality has been going on for years and generally more accepted in the last decade. Pfizer and/or the ad agency has hit a gold mine by striking a chord with the unmarried career single mother-to-be's, or not-to-be's. You see, the commerical didn't actually show if the woman was pregnant or not, just that she was mildly smiling after seeing the result of the test. Chalk up another one for the ad... it doesn't judge you since you can't see the result.

Lennar (LEN) 2007 Q1 Profit Sharply Drops

2007-03-27T06:33:00.000-07:00

Well, it was starting to happen and now it's prevalent: National Homebuilders have lower profits and see no home price stabilization in sight. From Marketwatch, Lennar reported first-quarter net earnings of $68.6 million, or 43 cents a share, for the three months ended Feb. 28, down 73% from the $258.1 million, or $1.58 a share, earned in the year-earlier quarter. Revenue overall dropped to $2.79 billion from $3.24 billion as revenue from home sales fell about 10% to $2.62 billion. Orders were down nearly 30%

In a maverick move and one in which I applaud, Lennar withdrew its previously (read Jan '07) stated target of topping 2006 numbers, and going as far as not issuing new guidance. I applaud this move because with the housing bubble bursting, instability of home prices, unknown land impairments, increased difficulty for buyers to qualify for loans, and increasing inventory, any homebuilder trying to issue numbers would be trying to pin down a moving target.

Math & Methodology of Housing Numbers

2007-03-26T14:53:00.000-07:00

Doug Kass' article, The Simple Math of Subprime's Slide:

It is truly remarkable how the slightest provocation (last week's "solid" home-sales headline) had the media and other permabullish types declare that the housing market has finally bottomed (again!) and that the impact on the subslime mess would be contained.

Nicholas Yulico's article, Home-Sales Data Debated:

The Commerce Department reported much-worse-than-expected new-home sales data for February, with sales dropping 3.9% from January and inventories hitting fresh highs.

The news comes after seemingly positive housing data last week. The National Association of Realtors reported Friday that sales of existing homes climbed nearly 4% in February, beating economists' estimates.

My observations later...

Buy a House, Be a Contrarian (Yeah, Right!)

2007-03-26T07:31:00.000-07:00

This morning on CNBC, 30 minutes after the Commerce Department reported single-family new home sales were down 3.9% in February versus January and down 18.3% compared to year ago levels, David Michonski (president/CEO of Coldwell Banker Hunt Kennedy) squared off against Dean Baker (Economist and co-director of CEPR) to discuss if now is a good time to buy a house. Could you guess who took which side?

While Dean Baker pointed towards the newly release sales numbers and the general psychology of buyers believing prices could go lower, Michonski was expectedly upbeat about the housing market. If fact, Michonski stated that the median price for a single-family home was up 1.1% in 2006, slightly lower than the historic 4%. He ventured that median prices were slightly down last year, but should return to the the historic 4% in 2007. He further followed the REIC mantra by saying it's hard to be a contrarian and buy a house now, and that now is a good time to buy a house and that a 6-month inventory is a balanced buyer and seller market. Even the host of CNBC asked Michonski if he is doing a disservice to his customers by saying that kind of thinking out there if the face of economic indicators and sales numbers that show housing weakness.

To Dean Baker's credit, he didn't get into a cat fight with Michonski. He pointed out that these are monthly numbers and can only suggest a trend, but he did nail Michonski for the median sale price rising 1.1% in 2006 comment as being disingenuous. Baker has read the tea leaves (indicators/numbers) and is not paid to selling homes as Michonski is.

DirectBuy

2007-03-22T02:55:00.000-07:00

DirectBuy has been advertising quite a bit on TV and I've always wondered if they were as great as touted on TV. In a nutshell, the commercial states that they are America's #1 place to buy big ticket home improvement items for your home. The commercial entices you to call the phone number to receive a visitor's pass to visit a nearby DirectBuy showroom.

Well, based on online testimony, the membership for DirectBuy is $5000. The sales reps are trained to force you into forking over the $5000 during your free visit or you're banned forever. As for their prices, people note DirectBuy is higher than prices you would get as Lowes, Home Depot, Sears, etc. Shipping prices, shipping damage, return policy, and product delivery times were also huge negatives noted by members.

Infomercial Ratings

Infomercial Scams

SCAM

Home Builders' Cancellation Rates and Impairments

2007-03-22T02:02:00.000-07:00

Part 2 - Land Impairments

The headlines that have gained some traction from the national home builders since Q4 2006 have been standing inventory, cancellation rates, and land impairments. Yet, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index (^HGX) has been up 10% since mid-December, and this increase takes into account the 10% February drop for the index.

The market appears to place greater weight on the latest headlines declaring reduce inventory and lowered cancellation rate (even though I question how those number are presented) and lesser weight on the issue of land impairments. What exactly are land impairments? Periodically home builder must review the value of the raw land (among other things) held in inventory. Under accounting rules, when the value of the land has decrease at the time of the review, a land impairment must be entered as one-time non-cash expense against earnings. Well, many home builders were snapping up raw land at ever exorbitant rates in the last few years with the expectation the housing boom would continue for years to come. Unfortunately, the housing market has slumped and many home builders are sitting on land options that are not going to be exercised and raw land that has greatly decreased in value.

In Q4 2006, these were the land impairments and options write-downs reported by selected home builders:

Hovnanian Enterprises - $336M (12/2006)
Pulte Homes - $88M (2006 Q3)
Toll Bros - $60M (projected in 12/2006); revised range of $60M to $160M+ (2/2007)

It is this last example that has piqued my interest. The markets have treated these write downs as one-time charges and have not punished the stock. Given the continued housing slump, these write downs going to continue. What also worries me is the methodology in calculating these land impairments. Land options losses are relatively easy to calculate as the money used to purchase the options is lost.

So is there a standard in which the home builders use to value their land impairments? It's apples to oranges comparison but this reminds me of the accounting irregularities during the dot com era when companies would hold back reporting of revenue if the company knows they will meet the current quarter's earnings estimates. The held back revenue would be used in future quarters in case the company did not meet estimates.

Home builders could decide that since the current quarter is already "lost", they could apply more land impairments during that quarter. The thought is that if they're already going to miss earnings estimates by a significant amount, what's another few millions dollars recorded as a lost? If more is written off now, less can be written off later. Or conversely, if the home builder is close to meeting the newly lowered earnings estimates based on recent land impairments, why not report less land impairments now to meet estimates, and record the impairments in a future quarter?

It's appears to be a giant loophole home builders can exploit to manipulate their stock price, especially during earnings time.

Bad Signs Around Town

2007-03-22T01:33:00.000-07:00

I'll start off by saying I'm notorious for correcting emails circulating at work for spelling errors and basic grammar issues. So, it should come as a surprise that I am bothered by this homemade sign for a barber. First there is the obvious issue with spelling. There is the off chance I am completely wrong and this is actually a sign for the fitness gym loaded with barbells located in the same strip mall, but I doubt it. Then there is the problem with word placement. What is with all that white space? Maybe use bigger letters and center the letters?

A mile down the road is a homemade telephone post sign for handyman services.

This last sign is for the Grand Opening of a Great Clips. There is actually nothing wrong with the sign, but I find it strange to advertise a "haircut sale". I really don't know how else to word it, but "haircut sale" just has a strange ring to it.

It's a perfect time to buy!

2007-03-11T11:43:00.000-07:00

I have to give the folks at Sacramento Land(ing) credit for digging up this research nugget posted on March 3rd from Jimmy Castro, Team Leader/Owner (and Snake Oil Salesman for the Re/Max Gold in Sacramento).

Here are a few choice quotes from the article:

JC & Associates with RE/MAX Gold keeps its fingers on the market's pulse-and its latest assessment gives the 2007 market a big thumbs up. JC & Associates, in fact, sees current conditions as "virtually ideal" for buying now.

In addition, there is an unprecedented array of low-rate mortgages available to finance a home purchase, including loan programs that require no down payment. The market climate for finding and affording that dream home may never again be this favorable.

Not only have prices stabilized at attractive levels... (with this chart at the top of the article)

Real estate activity has picked up in the last few months and we expect the pace of home sales to quicken even more as the traditionally busy spring market gains steam. Given this uptick in activity, making a home purchase sooner in 2007 rather than later may well prove to be the savviest financial move you could make this year.

Honestly, I could have put up the entire article as it is filled with these senseless quotes. Somehow having a real estate license allows people to start proclaiming they are experts.

Jimmy may want to revise his article since many of the sub-prime lenders are going kaput and the major mortgage originators are becoming more selective in their loan approvals by reducing/eliminating 100% LTV (loan-to-value) financing, piggyback 2nd mortgages, and many of the loans classisfied as sub-prime.

3 Day Blinds (and More?)

2007-03-10T23:06:00.000-08:00

I was recently reminded about an incident at a "3 Day Blinds" while in Rancho Cordova to pick up artwork I had framed at Michaels.

Three years ago I worked with a woman that needed to have some blinds ordered for her home. Since there was a "3 Day Blinds and More" located in the Target shopping center in Rancho, she went there during her lunch break. When she came back, I asked her how the purchase went. Well, it didn't, and here's why.

When my co-worker tried to confirm her order would be available for pick-up in 3 days, she was told it would take longer. This prompted her to ask why the chain was called "3 Day Blinds"? The answer was a bit ridiculous and funny. The salesperson responded to her by saying the store is called "3 Day Blinds and More". And this would be a situation where it would be "and More". Some more back-and-forth ensued with my co-worker finally leaving without purchasing any blinds.

With driving past this same store last week, I noticed the "and More" portion of the store sign was no longer there. Either too many people complained about the ridiculous "and More" clause in product delivery or these stores no longer carry items beyond blinds.

Update 2 - 3/09 Sutter Hill Gas Prices

2007-03-09T18:04:00.000-08:00

An article by Liz MacLeod in the Ledger-Dispatch prompted me to provide the latest follow-up on gas prices in Amador County. For the past week, gas prices have increased on a near daily basis. As of today, 3/09, Safeway has bubbled their price for regular unleaded gasoline to an all-time Safeway high of $2.94, while the Chevron and Shell nearby are priced at $3.21 and $3.09, respectively. Without further adieu, the latest chart:

The Chevron is 23 cents higher than the average in Folsom, located in the Sacramento Valley. A 23 cent difference equates to a 7.2% higher pump price at the Chevron compared to the Folsom average. Amador County residents usually mention the pump prices have been historically 10% higher than the Valley. If the highest priced dealer in Amador is pricing only 7.2% higher rather than the mythical 10% difference, then Safeway is starting to make a dent in the prices in Amador, but there is still a ways to go.

Home Builders' Cancellation Rates and Impairments

2007-03-07T12:58:00.000-08:00

Part 1 - Cancellation Rates

I'm going to pick on Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers Inc, the luxury home builder. If you remember, Toll put on his swami hat late last year and called the housing market bottom to be in Q1 of 2007. Toll had to then eat his words a few weeks ago when the bottom was still not in sight.

Baghdad Bob Toll struck again during a March 7th webcast during a Citigroup-sponsored conference by saying "the company's cancellation rate has recently moved down to 16% from a peak of 36%."

Ok, great Bob! How about reporting the number of contracts signed during this same period? Those statistics by themselves tell us absolutely nothing. For academic giggles, let's make up some numbers that Bob has thoughtfully omitted. If Toll Brothers had 100 buyers under contract in the previous period and only 33 buyers under contract this period (based purely on the 67% drop in Q4 earnings), the number would shake out as such:

Previous period > 100 buyers * (1 - 0.36) = 64 buyers
This period > 33 buyers * (1 - 0.16) = ~28 buyers

The bottom line numbers are totally ignored when Bob only mentions the cancellation rates. How the mainstream media (MSM) doesn't call Bob out for his smoke and mirrors tactics is pathetic. I can't be the only person who questions these soundbites the MSM latches onto, can I?

Part 2 - Land Impairment Figures

...to be continued.

Viability of Jackson Hills Development

2007-03-02T03:12:00.000-08:00

This entry regarding Jackson Hills Golf Community will not discuss the environmental and economic impact to the city of Jackson or Amador County. The entry is also not to skewer the developement company behind the Jackson Hills project, New Faze Development. In fact, from what I have read, I'm rather in favor of the infill projects New Faze has taken on in the past.

Rather, let's focus on whether it makes economic sense to put in another golf course community in Amador County. As a golf course destination, the county already has Mace Meadows and Castle Oaks. Within a 30 minute drive are a plethora of other golf courses in Sacramento. There were rumors, at one point, that Jackson Rancheria was looking into building a golf course on their property, but that talk seems to have diminished. If a deep pocketed tribal casino in the county does not go forward with a golf course because the numbers don't make sense, why should another course be built.

Next, let's look at housing market. For all intensive purposes, the housing bubble has popped. I don't need to go into the figures that have been put out by all the other blogs. If you need some numbers, please click on the recommended blog links and go from there. Home sales have slowed to almost a screeching halt, mortgage lending standards are beginning to tighten, and Amador County is not immune to any of these factors, just about 6 months lagging.

So do we have a crystal ball for how home sales may fare for Jackson Hills? Possibly. What about Castle Oaks in Ione? Castle Oaks is also a golf course community in Amador County. The lots currently in development are through JTS Communities. Since sales began in late 2005 for their mid-range Premiere and high-end Masters Series homes, their sales numbers are as follows:

Premier Series - Phase 1 - 81 lots / 26 sales / 3 spec homes = 32% sold in 16 months
Masters Series - Phase 1 - 59 lots / 17 sales / 5 spec homes = 28.8% sold in 16 months

In fact, JTS has begun construction on 7 additional spec homes on the Masters lots. Perhaps one of the ways JTS has protected itself from the housing collapse has been its "built to order" methodology. They don't build unless a buyer places a deposit on a lot, which makes me wonder why they are putting up 7 Masters spec homes. It's clear from the numbers above that Castle Oaks isn't the booming success JTS has grown used to from their flipper friendly developments in Lincoln, West Sacramento, and Rancho Cordova.

I wonder if New Faze will go about planning the Jackson Hills development as most home builders do. That is, phases are planned and built out with the expectation of buyers. With the current housing market condition, and no signs of improvement in the near future, New Faze could be sitting on quite a bit of standing home inventory.

Not only does the Jackson Hills development have to compete with the on-going 7-10 year Castle Oaks development, there are also plans for a 1,334 home Gold Rush and a 588 home Wicklow Way project in Amador County.

New Faze should realize that the housing bubble has burst. They should also look at the difficulty JTS has had in Castle Oaks as a barometer for additional golf course communities in Amador County.

Boost Mobile with GPS, are you serious?

2007-03-02T03:10:00.000-08:00

New commercials with Oompa Loompa wannabes have been hitting the airwaves advertising Boost Loopt. In a nutshell, it's a cell phone with GPS capability. Your friends and family can broadcast their location within a user defined private network. You cannot find out the location of your friends and family at your request. They must update their location regularly or all you'll see is their last broadcast location and when it was broadcast.

Sure, there are the questions regarding user privacy. Law enforcement can probably get a subpoena and track exactly where you are.

The real question is... would you be offended if your spouse, boy/girlfriend gave you this phone? It's almost like having your own private eye on your significant other. I can see some real advantages for college students, friends, parents to have this phone.

Before you buy this phone for your spouse or significant other, prepare yourself for strange looks or conversations about trust. Really think before you act.

Cannibalization of Starbucks

2007-03-01T17:10:00.000-08:00

Now, you may read the title of this post and think that I'm going to start on some rant about the Starbucks density in my neighborhood. I'm sorry to disappoint you. There are many blogs and articles serving that capacity. In fact, a quick Google search acknowledges this.

No, rather I wish to discuss the newer phenomenon of having two Starbucks within the same suburban shopping center, notably a stand-alone Starbucks competing with a Starbucks-within-a-supermarket (SwiS). In the Sacramento area, these SwiS version are located with Safeways. A search through the Starbucks locator reveals the existence of SwiS in Albertsons stores also.

Now, I shouldn't be questioning the economics of the Starbucks versus SwiS phenomenon since I'm sure Starbucks corporate bean counter have already done the analysis. I'm more interested as to why as a consumer I would choose going to a Starbuck rather than a SwiS. For instance, at a Safeway SwiS, by using my club card, I am awarded a free coffee drink of my choice after 7 coffee purchases. Let's do some simple math here, if I am purely a regular coffee drinker (at a price point of $1.50), I would be enjoying 8 cups of coffee at the price of 7.

7 / 8 = .875, so that is a 12.5% discount

For a drinker of regular coffee, you'd save 18.75 cents per cup.
For a drinker of Venti Frapp, you'd save 56.25 cents per cup.

Of course, the math doesn't take into account if you plan on "gaming" the system by normally ordering regular coffee and splurging your free drink on a Venti Frapp. Or normally ordering a Tall or Grande, but utilizing a Venti for the free drink. Or adding shots to the free order when you normally don't. Or doing a run for your office mates and giving yourself the free one.

I suppose if you're a person of means and don't care to save 18-60 cents each time you need a Starbucks hit, you've probably stopped reading this post long ago. Otherwise, why choose the Starbucks over the SwiS? Is it the ambiance? The big comfy chairs? You need the location for a business meeting? Ok, I have to question your business if you hold meetings at a Starbucks. It's not really a "business" meeting. It's you having a social get-together.

Anyhow, I'm guessing the business lost to the Starbucks is gained by the customers that might not have been customers if the SwiS was not so conveniently located inside the supermarket. Perhaps there is a licensing fee or per cup fee that is paid to Starbucks corporate. Anyone have any insight?

Update 1 - 2/27 Sutter Hill Gas Prices

2007-02-27T00:36:00.000-08:00

Here is the first update to the original post from last week on Sutter Hill gas prices. Three more stations have been added to the survey (1 in Jackson, Martell, and Ione) from Amador County and two stations have been added from Folsom. I've added the Folsom stations so that we can see the consistent pump price difference between Chevron and Shell stations in Folsom versus Amador County. This move to compare same brand stations is in response to jbjbj's comment that branded stations are forced to purchase their gas from their brand's distributor rather than a wholesaler, which the Safeways and Mirastar/WalMarts can purchase from.

There still exists a 20-30 cent difference between the unbranded versus the branded stations. What is not as noticable is with the inclusion of the Folsom branded stations, comparison of like-branded stations still shows Amador County 10-15 higher than the Valley.

I am still not convinced that branded stations have to purchase from their distributor but I cannot cite a reputable source to confirm.

Update: I believe the article I read that seems to imply that all gas comes from the same place and is the same gas until additives are introduced post-refinery was from the May 08, 2003 Sacramento News & Review.

Lindsay Wagner on Sleep Number Commercials

2007-02-26T10:05:00.000-08:00

I was about to go to sleep last night and the Sleep Number mattress infomercial came on. If any of you have seen these infomercials over the years, you'll remember that Lindsay Wagner from Bionic Woman fame is the pitch person. I'll admit she's always looked pretty good. Then I noticed something last night, every time she was on the screen the image would be fuzzy. It was as if she was in her own dreamlike state. This was not a technical issue, it was intentional. Has she aged to the point that her appearances on this infomercial have to be blurred?

TV Ad disclaimers

2007-02-22T15:33:00.000-08:00

One of the more amusing (or asinine) disclaimers on television right now is for the Ford Edge, a crossover vehicle. The commercial depicts the Edge driving on the edge of hi-rise rooftops on two wheels, with the rest of the vehicle floating in the air. Not the best of commercials, but it has a somewhat catchy tune.

In the middle of all this MTV-inspired video, oops commercial, pops up this disclaimer on the bottom:

"Yes, this is a fantasy. Vehicles can't really drive on buildings."

Ok, seriously??!?! Has our litigious society reduced advertisers to covering their butts with such obvious disclaimers? If someone does try to drive on the edge of a building and dies, then a Darwin award should be handed out.

Employees and their sense of entitlement

2007-02-21T23:14:00.000-08:00

Anyone that works near me knows exactly what I speak of when I say employees have a sense of entitlement, specifically a right to have more than a 6% guaranteed yearly pay raise.

Now for a little background info on how we all got to this point. Prior to 2006, the ceiling for pay raises at my place of employment was 10% per year. It seemed as though achieving a pay raise of at least 6% was quite common for a majority of the employees. So perhaps many employees have gotten used to a 10% raise? When it was announced in 2006 that the raise cap would be 6% and everyone would be receiving this raise as long as they were employed, the announcement upset quite a few people.

Employees upset over the announcement were mostly divided into two parties:

Those upset that everyone would be receiving the same raise regardless of performance
Those upset that 6% would be the maximum yearly raise

I can partially sympathize with the folks in the first group. By guaranteeing a set raise, there is no incentive to improve performance. The good employees essentially carry the poor employees. Yet, I am also cognizant of the fact that some managers would automatically give a 10% raise to their friends and little or no raise to employees they did not like.

As for the second group of upset employees, I have no sympathy for them. Here are some statistics for you to mull over:

The US Military across-the-board raise for 2007 is 2.2% (read)
The US civilian average raise in 2006 calculated by the Employee Cost Index is 1.7%
The US employee average raise in 2005 calculated by HR Mercer Consulting is 3.6%

Consider this, at 10%, an employee nearly doubles the initial starting salary after 7 years, discounting the high probability of promotions and pay raises based off the promotions. I know not all and probably not even a majority of the employees fall into the second group, who I will now call the 6% Percenters, but the gall of these employees because they have fallen off the gravy train is sickening.

Sutter Hill Gasoline Prices

2007-02-20T01:36:00.000-08:00

As a study of gasoline prices in a very localized market, I've decided to focus on 3 gas stations located in Sutter Hill, CA.

The reasons are simple:

Two of the stations are across the street from each other and are along my daily commute route
The third station is where I actually go for my gas and is the catalyst for price adjustments by the other two gas stations
Sutter Hill is at least 30 miles from the nearly metropolitan area and gasoline prices are generally unaffected by the lower prices in the "big city"

Now the gas stations in the study:

Shell (corner of Ridge Road & Hwy 49)
Chevron (corner of Ridge Road & Hwy 49)
Safeway (corner of Industrial Blvd & Hwy 49)

As a former resident of in the Sacramento Valley, I have always had the benefit of cheaper gas prices. On average the prices in the Valley have always been 20-30 cents lower than in Amador County. This all changed on December 1st, 2006 when the new Safeway opened, complete with a Safeway branded gas station. The gas price from regular unleaded gas was $2.55, which was equal to the price at the Valley's Costco. Soon after, both Shell and Chevron lowered their prices to within pennies of the Safeway price. To the many locals that have voiced their opinions about years price gouging by local gas station operators, this was long-awaited vindication.

Then last week, I noticed something was amiss. The Chevron was charging $2.85 while the Shell was charging $2.71, a spread of 14 cents. These two stations had always priced their gasoline in lock-step with each other, but not last week. The assumption here was that Safeway had also raised their prices and there was some delay in raising the prices at the Shell station. I was wrong. Safeway was priced at $2.51.

This week, Chevron is at $2.87, Shell at $2.85, and Safeway at $2.55.

Have the established gas stations given up the price fight against Safeway? Or is Safeway able to uncut the competition given it's deep corporate pockets? I believe it's a combination of both. Over the weekend, I noticed the average price of gasoline in the Valley was in the $2.60 range. So not only is Safeway undercutting the Sutter Hill competitors, but also undercutting the average price in Valley.

I, for one, will continue to purchase my gasoline at Safeway especially with the 3 cent per gallon discount for using my Club Card. I will also begin tracking the gas prices for these 3 stations.